Athletic Club vs Racing Santander Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for Athletic Club and 1.10 for Racing Santander, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Athletic Club the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Athletic Club win

68.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.53 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Athletic Club home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Racing Santander away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Athletic Club win68%

Draw17%

Racing Santander win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

32%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

2–19.3%
2–08.5%
3–17.9%
1–17.4%
3–07.2%

Recent form

Athletic Club

2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Elche · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 2-0 (W)

Racing Santander

2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-16T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 2-7 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Vallecano · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · Athletic Club 3-0 Racing Santander (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-07-24T17:30:00.000Z · Athletic Club 2-1 Racing Santander (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-07-27T17:00:00.000Z · Athletic Club 0-0 Racing Santander (Friendlies Clubs)
2012-04-22T14:00:00.000Z · Athletic Club 1-0 Racing Santander (La Liga)
2011-12-11T18:45:00.000Z · Athletic Club 1-1 Racing Santander (La Liga)
2011-05-21T20:00:00.000Z · Athletic Club 2-1 Racing Santander (La Liga)
2011-01-15T19:00:00.000Z · Athletic Club 2-1 Racing Santander (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	10	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	5	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	11	18
5	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	1	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	-3	13
7	Alaves	8	3	2	3	4	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	8	2	4	2	1	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	1	5	2	2	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	0	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	0	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	-10	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	-10	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	-4	6
18	Elche	8	1	3	4	-6	6
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	-9	5
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Athletic Club win, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.