Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2 · Referee María Martínez · Analysis updated 05:20 UTC
Athletic Club W vs Deportivo Alavés W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Athletic Club W and 1.80 for Deportivo Alavés W, a combined total of 4.08. That distribution gives Athletic Club W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Athletic Club W win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Athletic Club W home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Alavés W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Athletic Club W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 20% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Athletic Club W and 1.80 for Deportivo Alavés W, a combined 4.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.9%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–17.0%
- 1–26.3%
- 3–16.0%
Recent form
Athletic Club W
- 2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Valencia W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Madrid CFF W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Eibar W · 0-1 (L)
Deportivo Alavés W
- 2026-10-25T11:45:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo de La Coruña W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Espanyol W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Madrid CFF W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona W · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División Femenina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 21 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 3 | Athletic Club W | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid W | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Madrid CFF W | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 14 |
| 6 | Eibar W | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Granad. Tenerife W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Granada | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Espanyol W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Edf Logrono W | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Real Sociedad W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Sevilla W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | FC Levante Badalona W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Deportivo Alavés W | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Valencia W | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Athletic Club W win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.