Lezama Facilities · Referee M. Planes · Analysis updated 06:09 UTC
Athletic Club W vs FC Levante Badalona W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Athletic Club W and 0.93 for FC Levante Badalona W, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Athletic Club W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Athletic Club W win
57.4% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Athletic Club W home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Levante Badalona W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.9%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.7%
Recent form
Athletic Club W
- 2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Valencia W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Madrid CFF W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Eibar W · 0-1 (L)
FC Levante Badalona W
- 2026-10-24T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Edf Logrono W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Granad. Tenerife W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla W · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Granada · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad W · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · Athletic Club W 3-1 FC Levante Badalona W (Primera División Femenina)
- 2026-05-02T10:00:00.000Z · Athletic Club W 1-0 FC Levante Badalona W (Primera División Femenina)
- 2026-01-10T14:00:00.000Z · Athletic Club W 0-0 FC Levante Badalona W (Primera División Femenina)
- 2025-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · Athletic Club W 1-0 FC Levante Badalona W (Primera División Femenina)
- 2024-12-07T15:00:00.000Z · Athletic Club W 1-0 FC Levante Badalona W (Primera División Femenina)
- 2024-03-31T14:00:00.000Z · Athletic Club W 4-1 FC Levante Badalona W (Primera División Femenina)
- 2023-10-01T15:00:00.000Z · Athletic Club W 1-2 FC Levante Badalona W (Primera División Femenina)
- 2023-04-29T14:00:00.000Z · Athletic Club W 1-0 FC Levante Badalona W (Primera División Femenina)
- 2023-01-08T11:00:00.000Z · Athletic Club W 2-0 FC Levante Badalona W (Primera División Femenina)
Primera División Femenina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 21 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 3 | Athletic Club W | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid W | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Madrid CFF W | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 14 |
| 6 | Eibar W | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Granad. Tenerife W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Granada | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Espanyol W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Edf Logrono W | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Real Sociedad W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Sevilla W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | FC Levante Badalona W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Deportivo Alavés W | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Valencia W | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Athletic Club W win, at 57.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.