· Analysis updated 14:39 UTC
Athletico PR U20 vs Araucaria U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.99 expected goals for Athletico PR U20 and 0.93 for Araucaria U20, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Athletico PR U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Athletico PR U20 win
62.0% probability
Expected goals
1.99 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Athletico PR U20 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Araucaria U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Athletico PR U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 21% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.99 goals for Athletico PR U20 and 0.93 for Araucaria U20, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.7%
- 2–010.7%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–07.1%
Recent form
Athletico PR U20
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Luverdense U20 · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-07-16T00:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino U20 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Avaí U20 · 2-0 (W)
Araucaria U20
- 2026-06-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Patriotas U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Patriotas U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-09T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Cascavel U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cascavel U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-31T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Athletico PR U20 · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paranaense U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coritiba U20 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 25 |
| 2 | Athletico PR U20 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Cascavel U20 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 4 | City London U20 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 5 | Operário PR U20 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Galo Maringá U20 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Araucaria U20 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Patriotas U20 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Parana Clube U20 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | CE União U20 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 9 |
| 11 | Hope Internacional U20 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | Cianorte U20 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Athletico PR U20 win, at 62.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.