· Analysis updated 16:17 UTC
Athletico PR U20 vs Luverdense U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Athletico PR U20 and 1.05 for Luverdense U20, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Athletico PR U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Athletico PR U20 win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Athletico PR U20 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Athletico PR U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 24% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Athletico PR U20 and 1.05 for Luverdense U20, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.2%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
Athletico PR U20
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Luverdense U20 · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-07-16T00:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino U20 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Avaí U20 · 2-0 (W)
Luverdense U20
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Athletico PR U20 · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-01-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Trindade U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-01-06T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-01-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs XV de Jaú U20 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Athletico PR U20 win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.