Athlone Town Stadium · Analysis updated 15:02 UTC
Athlone Town vs Cork City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Athlone Town and 1.53 for Cork City, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Cork City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cork City win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Athlone Town home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cork City away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–07.9%
- 0–27.8%
Recent form
Athlone Town
- 2026-10-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cork City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cobh Ramblers · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kerry · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs UCD · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Finn Harps · 1-0 (W)
Cork City
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wexford · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Treaty United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-07T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kerry · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Athlone Town · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Finn Harps · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-03T16:00:00.000Z · Athlone Town 2-3 Cork City (First Division)
- 2026-05-22T18:45:00.000Z · Athlone Town 0-3 Cork City (First Division)
- 2026-03-27T19:45:00.000Z · Athlone Town 1-4 Cork City (First Division)
- 2024-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · Athlone Town 4-1 Cork City (First Division)
- 2024-08-09T18:45:00.000Z · Athlone Town 0-0 Cork City (First Division)
- 2024-05-31T18:45:00.000Z · Athlone Town 1-0 Cork City (First Division)
- 2024-03-29T19:45:00.000Z · Athlone Town 0-1 Cork City (First Division)
- 2022-10-14T18:45:00.000Z · Athlone Town 3-2 Cork City (First Division)
- 2022-08-05T18:45:00.000Z · Athlone Town 1-6 Cork City (First Division)
- 2022-05-06T18:45:00.000Z · Athlone Town 1-2 Cork City (First Division)
First Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cork City | 36 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 75 |
| 2 | UCD | 36 | 16 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 56 |
| 3 | Bray Wanderers | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 54 |
| 4 | Kerry FC | 36 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 4 | 52 |
| 5 | Longford Town | 36 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 52 |
| 6 | Cobh Ramblers | 36 | 14 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 49 |
| 7 | Athlone Town | 36 | 13 | 9 | 14 | -1 | 48 |
| 8 | Wexford | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | -14 | 42 |
| 9 | Treaty United | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | -16 | 42 |
| 10 | Finn Harps | 36 | 7 | 7 | 22 | -37 | 28 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cork City win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.