Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan · Analysis updated 02:37 UTC
ATK Mohun Bagan vs Chennaiyin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for ATK Mohun Bagan and 0.97 for Chennaiyin, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives ATK Mohun Bagan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
ATK Mohun Bagan win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.47 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ATK Mohun Bagan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 26% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for ATK Mohun Bagan and 0.97 for Chennaiyin, a combined 2.44 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 49% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.8%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–09.4%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–08.7%
Recent form
ATK Mohun Bagan
Chennaiyin
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Indian Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NorthEast United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Minerva Punjab | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | East Bengal II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 |
| 4 | Bengaluru | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Kerala Blasters | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 6 | ATK Mohun Bagan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Churchill Brothers | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 8 | Odisha | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 9 | Mumbai City | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 10 | Goa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Chennaiyin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 12 | Inter Kashi | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 13 | SC Delhi | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is ATK Mohun Bagan win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.