Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan · Analysis updated 09:19 UTC
ATK Mohun Bagan vs East Bengal II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for ATK Mohun Bagan and 1.21 for East Bengal II, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives ATK Mohun Bagan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
ATK Mohun Bagan win
52.1% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.21
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
East Bengal II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ATK Mohun Bagan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 23% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for ATK Mohun Bagan and 1.21 for East Bengal II, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–08.0%
- 1–26.4%
Recent form
ATK Mohun Bagan
East Bengal II
- 2026-10-23T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter Kashi · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Churchill Brothers · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Shorta · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-08T12:45:00.000Z · A vs ATK Mohun Bagan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs NorthEast United · 7-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
IFA Shield table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATK Mohun Bagan | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8 |
| 2 | Minerva Punjab | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 3 | East Bengal II | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | NorthEast United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 5 | Calcutta Customs | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | 0 |
| 6 | Sreenidi Deccan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is ATK Mohun Bagan win, at 52.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.