· Analysis updated 12:08 UTC
Atl. Rafaela 2 vs Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.84 expected goals for Atl. Rafaela 2 and 1.00 for Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2, a combined total of 1.84. That distribution gives Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.6% probability
Expected goals
0.84 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atl. Rafaela 2 home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 29% / 32% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.84 goals for Atl. Rafaela 2 and 1.00 for Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2, a combined 1.84 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 28% and both teams to score at 36%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.9%
- 0–015.9%
- 1–113.3%
- 1–013.3%
- 0–28.0%
Recent form
Atl. Rafaela 2
- 2026-09-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Ferro 2 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento Res. · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Res. · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Colón Res. · 2-1 (W)
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.