· Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Atl. Rafaela 2 vs Quilmes 2 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Atl. Rafaela 2 and 0.83 for Quilmes 2, a combined total of 2.02. That distribution gives Atl. Rafaela 2 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
74.1% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atl. Rafaela 2 home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atl. Rafaela 2 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 30% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Atl. Rafaela 2 and 0.83 for Quilmes 2, a combined 2.02 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 33% and both teams to score at 39%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.7%
- 0–013.3%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.1%
- 2–09.3%
Recent form
Atl. Rafaela 2
- 2026-09-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Ferro 2 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento Res. · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Res. · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Colón Res. · 2-1 (W)
Quilmes 2
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.