Mexico · Liga MX U21 · Regular Season - 915:00

15:00 UTC

Saturday, 19 September 2026

· Analysis updated 01:56 UTC

Atl. San Luis U21 vs Necaxa U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Atl. San Luis U21 and 1.16 for Necaxa U21, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Atl. San Luis U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws roughly 45% of the time.

Model pick

Atl. San Luis U21 to Win

55.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.93 – 1.16

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Atl. San Luis U21 win55%
Draw22%
Necaxa U21 win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals37%
Both teams to score59%

Correct score

  • 1–110.2%
  • 2–19.8%
  • 1–08.8%
  • 2–08.5%
  • 3–16.3%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Atl. San Luis U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 22% / 23% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.93 goals for Atl. San Luis U21 and 1.16 for Necaxa U21, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

  • Model confidence

    Atl. San Luis U21 to Win is the headline pick at 55% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Atl. San Luis U21

    Necaxa U21

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      Liga MX U21 table

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      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.