Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Referee M. De Oliveira · Analysis updated 18:35 UTC
Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Atlanta United FC and 1.75 for New York Red Bulls, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives New York Red Bulls the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
64%
Model pick
New York Red Bulls or Draw
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.9%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–16.0%
Why the model likes this
New York Red Bulls away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Odds comparison
Indicative prices for the main markets.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Home | 1.97 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | 3.95 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Away | 3.25 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 1.13 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | 5.75 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.44 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.70 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.10 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.70 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 3.45 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 4.5 | 1.30 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 5.5 | 6.25 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 5.5 | 1.11 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | Yes | 1.40 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | No | 2.75 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 1.33 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 1.80 | 10Bet |
Recent form
Atlanta United FC
- 2026-08-01T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Philadelphia Union · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New England Revolution · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-23T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Charlotte · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-18T00:10:00.000Z · A vs Nashville SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-24T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Columbus Crew · 0-2 (L)
New York Red Bulls
- 2026-08-01T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Orlando City SC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-25T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlotte · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Philadelphia Union · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-24T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Kansas City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-16T23:30:00.000Z · H vs New York City FC · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-11T17:00:00.000Z · Atlanta United FC 3-2 New York Red Bulls (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-05-31T23:30:00.000Z · Atlanta United FC 0-2 New York Red Bulls (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-03-09T00:30:00.000Z · Atlanta United FC 0-0 New York Red Bulls (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-10-05T23:30:00.000Z · Atlanta United FC 2-1 New York Red Bulls (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-09-21T23:30:00.000Z · Atlanta United FC 2-2 New York Red Bulls (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-06-24T23:30:00.000Z · Atlanta United FC 0-4 New York Red Bulls (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-04-01T23:30:00.000Z · Atlanta United FC 1-0 New York Red Bulls (Major League Soccer)
- 2022-08-17T23:30:00.000Z · Atlanta United FC 1-2 New York Red Bulls (Major League Soccer)
- 2022-07-01T00:00:00.000Z · Atlanta United FC 1-2 New York Red Bulls (Major League Soccer)
- 2021-11-03T23:30:00.000Z · Atlanta United FC 0-0 New York Red Bulls (Major League Soccer)
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 34 |
| 2 | Los Angeles FC | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 34 |
| 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 33 |
| 4 | Houston Dynamo | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 32 |
| 5 | Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 27 |
| 6 | FC Dallas | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 27 |
| 7 | St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 26 |
| 8 | Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 24 |
| 9 | Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 24 |
| 10 | Minnesota United FC | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | -5 | 24 |
| 11 | Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 22 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | -5 | 22 |
| 13 | San Diego | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 21 |
| 14 | Austin | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | -28 | 14 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 40 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 38 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 30 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 29 |
| 5 | New York City FC | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26 |
| 6 | FC Cincinnati | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 26 |
| 7 | Charlotte | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 25 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | -10 | 25 |
| 9 | DC United | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | -3 | 23 |
| 10 | Orlando City SC | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | -17 | 20 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | -2 | 20 |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | -8 | 17 |
| 13 | Philadelphia Union | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -8 | 16 |
| 14 | CF Montreal | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -11 | 16 |
| 15 | Atlanta United FC | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | -14 | 12 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.