Atlante FC vs Monterrey Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Atlante FC and 1.52 for Monterrey, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Monterrey the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

69.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.52

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Atlante FC home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Monterrey away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monterrey to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 30% / 25% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Atlante FC and 1.52 for Monterrey, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Atlante FC win30%

Draw25%

Monterrey win45%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.0%
0–110.0%
1–29.1%
1–07.9%
0–27.6%

Recent form

Atlante FC

2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Monterrey · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-19T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T03:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Pachuca · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlas · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Leon · 1-1 (D)

Monterrey

2026-10-11T03:10:00.000Z · A vs Club America · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Toluca · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlante FC · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-20T01:10:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T01:10:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga MX table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Club America	12	8	3	1	16	27
2	Guadalajara Chivas	14	7	5	2	9	26
3	Toluca	14	6	5	3	10	23
4	Cruz Azul	13	7	2	4	7	23
5	Leon	14	6	4	4	3	22
6	Atlas	13	6	3	4	-2	21
7	Monterrey	13	6	2	5	5	20
8	Club Queretaro	12	6	2	4	1	20
9	Santos Laguna	13	6	1	6	3	19
10	Atletico San Luis	14	5	4	5	-3	19
11	Club Tijuana	12	4	5	3	1	17
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	14	4	5	5	-3	17
13	Puebla	13	4	4	5	-4	16
14	Tigres UANL	14	3	6	5	-4	15
15	Atlante FC	14	3	5	6	-6	14
16	CF Pachuca	13	3	4	6	2	13
17	Necaxa	14	2	4	8	-11	10
18	FC Juarez	14	1	2	11	-24	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.