Estadio Leonel Placido · Analysis updated 16:39 UTC
Atlántico vs Jarabacoa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Atlántico and 1.35 for Jarabacoa, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Jarabacoa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Jarabacoa win
52.4% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlántico home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Jarabacoa away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jarabacoa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 19% / 28% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for Atlántico and 1.35 for Jarabacoa, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.4%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–211.7%
- 1–09.0%
Recent form
Atlántico
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Salcedo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Cibao · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Jarabacoa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Delfines Del Este · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad O&M · 1-3 (L)
Jarabacoa
- 2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Delfines Del Este · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-25T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlántico · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Cibao · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-12-17T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlántico · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-12-13T20:00:00.000Z · H vs San Cristóbal · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Mayor table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salcedo | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 29 |
| 2 | Cibao | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Vega Real | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 |
| 4 | Delfines Del Este | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Moca | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Universidad O&M | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Jarabacoa | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -14 | 2 |
| 8 | Atlántico | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -28 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Jarabacoa win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.