Estadio Leonel Placido · Analysis updated 16:38 UTC
Atlántico vs Moca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.38 expected goals for Atlántico and 1.95 for Moca, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Moca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Moca win
75.5% probability
Expected goals
0.38 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlántico home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Moca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 6% / 18% / 76% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.38 goals for Atlántico and 1.95 for Moca, a combined 2.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 41% and both teams to score at 27%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
25%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
94%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–119.1%
- 0–218.6%
- 0–312.1%
- 0–09.8%
- 1–17.2%
Recent form
Atlántico
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Salcedo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Cibao · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Jarabacoa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Delfines Del Este · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad O&M · 1-3 (L)
Moca
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Mayor table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salcedo | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 29 |
| 2 | Cibao | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Vega Real | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 |
| 4 | Delfines Del Este | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Moca | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Universidad O&M | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Jarabacoa | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -14 | 2 |
| 8 | Atlántico | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -28 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Moca win, at 75.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.