· Analysis updated 09:47 UTC
Atlas Delmenhorst vs Bersenbrück Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.83 expected goals for Atlas Delmenhorst and 2.00 for Bersenbrück, a combined total of 4.83. That distribution gives Atlas Delmenhorst the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atlas Delmenhorst win
55.4% probability
Expected goals
2.83 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlas Delmenhorst home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bersenbrück away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlas Delmenhorst to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 18% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.83 goals for Atlas Delmenhorst and 2.00 for Bersenbrück, a combined 4.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–16.4%
- 2–26.4%
- 3–16.0%
- 3–26.0%
- 1–14.5%
Recent form
Atlas Delmenhorst
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eimsbütteler TV · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs SSV Jeddeloh · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Drochtersen/Assel · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Todesfelde · 5-2 (W)
Bersenbrück
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordhorn · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Germania Egestorf · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hemmingen · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lüneburger SK Hansa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Meppen II · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atlas Delmenhorst win, at 55.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.