· Analysis updated 04:29 UTC
Atlas Delmenhorst vs St. Pauli II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for Atlas Delmenhorst and 1.52 for St. Pauli II, a combined total of 3.42. That distribution gives Atlas Delmenhorst the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Atlas Delmenhorst win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.89 – 1.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlas Delmenhorst home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
St. Pauli II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlas Delmenhorst to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 22% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.89 goals for Atlas Delmenhorst and 1.52 for St. Pauli II, a combined 3.42 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.2%
Recent form
Atlas Delmenhorst
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Phönix Lübeck · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bremer SV · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eimsbütteler TV · 1-1 (D)
St. Pauli II
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs HSC Hannover · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kickers Emden · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Drochtersen/Assel · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Norderstedt · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Nord table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weiche Flensburg | 15 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 34 |
| 2 | Hannover 96 II | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 33 |
| 3 | SV Drochtersen/Assel | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 31 |
| 4 | VfB Oldenburg | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 31 |
| 5 | Phönix Lübeck | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 28 |
| 6 | Schöningen | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 24 |
| 7 | Atlas Delmenhorst | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 20 |
| 8 | Kickers Emden | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 19 |
| 9 | VfB Lübeck | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | -3 | 18 |
| 10 | HSC Hannover | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -9 | 17 |
| 11 | Werder Bremen II | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 |
| 12 | Eimsbütteler TV | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 15 |
| 13 | SSV Jeddeloh | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | St. Pauli II | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -2 | 13 |
| 15 | Eintracht Norderstedt | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 16 | Hamburger SV II | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -12 | 13 |
| 17 | Todesfelde | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -25 | 12 |
| 18 | Bremer SV | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atlas Delmenhorst win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.