Atlas vs Atlante FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.74 expected goals for Atlas and 1.24 for Atlante FC, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Atlas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Atlas win

49.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.74 – 1.24

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Atlas home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Atlante FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.74 goals for Atlas and 1.24 for Atlante FC, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Atlas win49%

Draw24%

Atlante FC win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.0%
2–19.5%
1–08.8%
2–07.7%
1–26.8%

Recent form

Atlas

2026-09-26T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Tijuana · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T23:05:00.000Z · A vs Toluca · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-06T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlante FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Queretaro · 1-3 (L)

Atlante FC

2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Monterrey · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-19T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T03:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Pachuca · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlas · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Leon · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga MX table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Club America	12	8	3	1	16	27
2	Guadalajara Chivas	13	6	5	2	8	23
3	Cruz Azul	13	7	2	4	7	23
4	Toluca	13	6	4	3	10	22
5	Leon	13	6	3	4	3	21
6	Atlas	13	6	3	4	-2	21
7	Monterrey	12	6	2	4	6	20
8	Club Queretaro	12	6	2	4	1	20
9	Santos Laguna	13	6	1	6	3	19
10	Club Tijuana	12	4	5	3	1	17
11	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	13	4	4	5	-3	16
12	Atletico San Luis	13	4	4	5	-4	16
13	Puebla	13	4	4	5	-4	16
14	Tigres UANL	13	3	5	5	-4	14
15	Atlante FC	13	3	5	5	-5	14
16	CF Pachuca	13	3	4	6	2	13
17	Necaxa	13	2	3	8	-11	9
18	FC Juarez	13	1	1	11	-24	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Atlas win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.