Atlas vs Club America Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Atlas and 2.20 for Club America, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Club America the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Club America win

53.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 2.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Atlas home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Club America away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Club America to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 26% / 20% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Atlas and 2.20 for Club America, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Atlas win26%

Draw20%

Club America win54%

Double chance 1X

46%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals51%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–29.0%
1–18.2%
2–26.7%
1–36.6%
2–16.1%

Recent form

Atlas

2026-09-26T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Tijuana · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T23:05:00.000Z · A vs Toluca · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-06T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlante FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Queretaro · 1-3 (L)

Club America

2026-10-11T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Monterrey · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-05T01:10:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara Chivas · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-02T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-28T03:10:00.000Z · A vs Necaxa · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-20T03:25:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara Chivas · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga MX table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Club America	12	8	3	1	16	27
2	Guadalajara Chivas	13	6	5	2	8	23
3	Cruz Azul	13	7	2	4	7	23
4	Toluca	13	6	4	3	10	22
5	Leon	13	6	3	4	3	21
6	Atlas	13	6	3	4	-2	21
7	Monterrey	12	6	2	4	6	20
8	Club Queretaro	12	6	2	4	1	20
9	Santos Laguna	13	6	1	6	3	19
10	Club Tijuana	12	4	5	3	1	17
11	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	13	4	4	5	-3	16
12	Atletico San Luis	13	4	4	5	-4	16
13	Puebla	13	4	4	5	-4	16
14	Tigres UANL	13	3	5	5	-4	14
15	Atlante FC	13	3	5	5	-5	14
16	CF Pachuca	13	3	4	6	2	13
17	Necaxa	13	2	3	8	-11	9
18	FC Juarez	13	1	1	11	-24	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Club America win, at 53.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.