Estadio Jalisco · Analysis updated 17:36 UTC
Atlas vs Puebla Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Atlas and 1.28 for Puebla, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Puebla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.7% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlas home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Puebla away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.3%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–08.8%
- 1–28.3%
Recent form
Atlas
- 2026-09-26T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Tijuana · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T23:05:00.000Z · A vs Toluca · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlante FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Queretaro · 1-3 (L)
Puebla
- 2026-10-10T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Leon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T03:10:00.000Z · A vs Tigres UANL · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlante FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Toluca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Necaxa · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-10T20:00:00.000Z · Atlas 3-4 Puebla (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-01-10T03:00:00.000Z · Atlas 1-0 Puebla (Liga MX)
- 2025-07-12T01:00:00.000Z · Atlas 3-2 Puebla (Liga MX)
- 2025-02-15T23:00:00.000Z · Atlas 3-2 Puebla (Liga MX)
- 2024-07-20T03:05:00.000Z · Atlas 2-1 Puebla (Liga MX)
- 2024-03-09T01:00:00.000Z · Atlas 2-2 Puebla (Liga MX)
- 2023-09-29T02:00:00.000Z · Atlas 2-3 Puebla (Liga MX)
- 2023-03-18T01:00:00.000Z · Atlas 4-0 Puebla (Liga MX)
- 2022-08-21T00:05:00.000Z · Atlas 1-1 Puebla (Liga MX)
- 2022-02-12T03:00:00.000Z · Atlas 1-1 Puebla (Liga MX)
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.