Estadio Jalisco · Analysis updated 14:35 UTC
Atlas W vs León W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Atlas W and 1.80 for León W, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives León W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
León W win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlas W home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
León W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates León W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 28% / 23% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Atlas W and 1.80 for León W, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–17.9%
- 0–27.1%
- 2–16.9%
Recent form
Atlas W
- 2026-10-23T01:06:00.000Z · H vs León W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Pumas UNAM W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:06:00.000Z · A vs Querétaro W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T21:45:00.000Z · A vs América W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T03:06:00.000Z · H vs Atlante W · 1-0 (W)
León W
- 2026-08-29T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-17T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Querétaro W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-11T01:06:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Pumas UNAM W · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX Femenil table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monterrey W | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 30 |
| 2 | América W | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 28 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL W | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 28 |
| 4 | Guadalajara W | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 24 |
| 5 | Juárez W | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 6 | Toluca W | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 7 | Atlético San Luis W | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 8 | Pumas UNAM W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | León W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Santos Laguna W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 16 |
| 11 | Cruz Azul W | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 12 | Atlas W | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 13 |
| 13 | Pachuca W | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Tijuana W | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 | Atlante W | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Querétaro W | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -14 | 6 |
| 17 | Puebla W | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -26 | 4 |
| 18 | Necaxa W | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -42 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is León W win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.