Estadi Comunal · Analysis updated 19:38 UTC
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes vs Carroi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Atlètic Club d'Escaldes and 0.77 for Carroi, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Atlètic Club d'Escaldes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes win
62.9% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Carroi away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlètic Club d'Escaldes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 22% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Atlètic Club d'Escaldes and 0.77 for Carroi, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 2–012.4%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–07.6%
Recent form
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Club d'Escaldes · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Esperança d'Andorra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Casa de Portugal · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Escaldes · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter Club d'Escaldes · 0-2 (L)
Carroi
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Escaldes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Ranger's · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Penya Encarnada · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Club d'Escaldes · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Santa Coloma · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1a Divisió table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Santa Coloma | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 15 |
| 2 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 13 |
| 3 | Ordino | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 4 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Esperança d'Andorra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 6 | Ranger's | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Casa de Portugal | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 8 | Penya Encarnada | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 9 | Sporting Escaldes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 10 | Carroi | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atlètic Club d'Escaldes win, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.