Estadi Comunal · Analysis updated 08:26 UTC
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes vs FC Santa Coloma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Atlètic Club d'Escaldes and 2.38 for FC Santa Coloma, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives FC Santa Coloma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Santa Coloma win
58.0% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 2.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
FC Santa Coloma away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.9%
- 1–17.5%
- 1–37.1%
- 2–26.5%
- 0–26.2%
Recent form
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Club d'Escaldes · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Esperança d'Andorra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Casa de Portugal · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Escaldes · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter Club d'Escaldes · 0-2 (L)
FC Santa Coloma
- 2026-10-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Club d'Escaldes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Esperança d'Andorra · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Casa de Portugal · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Escaldes · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Penya Encarnada · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-23T10:00:00.000Z · Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 3-2 FC Santa Coloma (Copa Constitució)
- 2026-02-22T10:00:00.000Z · Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 0-3 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2026-02-08T12:15:00.000Z · Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 2-3 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2025-10-26T10:00:00.000Z · Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 2-2 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2025-05-04T11:30:00.000Z · Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 1-3 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2024-12-01T12:30:00.000Z · Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 0-0 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2024-10-20T09:00:00.000Z · Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 4-2 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2024-05-11T18:30:00.000Z · Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 1-0 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2024-02-04T12:30:00.000Z · Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 5-1 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
- 2023-09-23T18:30:00.000Z · Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 0-1 FC Santa Coloma (1a Divisió)
1a Divisió table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Santa Coloma | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 16 |
| 2 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 14 |
| 3 | Ordino | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 12 |
| 4 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Ranger's | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Esperança d'Andorra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | Casa de Portugal | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 8 | Penya Encarnada | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 9 | Sporting Escaldes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 10 | Carroi | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Santa Coloma win, at 58.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.