Estadi Comunal · Analysis updated 11:55 UTC
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes vs Sporting Escaldes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.64 expected goals for Atlètic Club d'Escaldes and 1.02 for Sporting Escaldes, a combined total of 3.67. That distribution gives Atlètic Club d'Escaldes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes win
71.8% probability
Expected goals
2.64 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlètic Club d'Escaldes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 16% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.64 goals for Atlètic Club d'Escaldes and 1.02 for Sporting Escaldes, a combined 3.67 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 59%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 2–08.9%
- 3–18.1%
- 3–07.9%
- 1–16.9%
Recent form
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Escaldes · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter Club d'Escaldes · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Penya Encarnada · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Vaduz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-23T17:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Vaduz · 0-4 (L)
Sporting Escaldes
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1a Divisió table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Santa Coloma | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 15 |
| 2 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 13 |
| 3 | Ordino | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 4 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Ranger's | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Esperança d'Andorra | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Penya Encarnada | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 5 |
| 8 | Casa de Portugal | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 9 | Sporting Escaldes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 10 | Carroi | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atlètic Club d'Escaldes win, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.