· Analysis updated 06:11 UTC
Atlético Albericia vs Castro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for Atlético Albericia and 1.45 for Castro, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Castro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Castro win
56.5% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético Albericia home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Castro away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Castro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 17% / 27% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.65 goals for Atlético Albericia and 1.45 for Castro, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.8%
- 0–212.9%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–111.5%
- 1–28.4%
Recent form
Atlético Albericia
- 2026-09-27T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Solares · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Selaya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Laredo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bezana · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Selaya · 2-4 (L)
Castro
- 2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Naval Reinosa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Escobedo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Albericia · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tropezón · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Mineros · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tropezón | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Laredo | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Revilla | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Bezana | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | Cayón | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Vimenor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | Sámano | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 8 | Torina | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | Atlético Mineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Castro | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Guarnizo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Selaya | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Atlético Albericia | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Solares | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Escobedo | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 | Naval Reinosa | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 17 | Velarde | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 18 | Barquereño | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Castro win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.