· Analysis updated 07:37 UTC
Atlético Arteixo vs Compostela Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Atlético Arteixo and 1.35 for Compostela, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Compostela the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Compostela away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Compostela to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 34% / 27% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Atlético Arteixo and 1.35 for Compostela, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.7%
Recent form
Atlético Arteixo
Compostela
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Astorga · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Coruxo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Oviedo II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Eibar II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sestao River · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-07T16:30:00.000Z · Atlético Arteixo 1-2 Compostela (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2026-05-31T10:00:00.000Z · Atlético Arteixo 2-1 Compostela (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2026-04-05T10:00:00.000Z · Atlético Arteixo 2-0 Compostela (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2025-11-22T17:00:00.000Z · Atlético Arteixo 1-1 Compostela (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2023-07-26T17:30:00.000Z · Atlético Arteixo 0-1 Compostela (Friendlies Clubs)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boiro | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Lalin | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | Barco | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Antela | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Sarriana | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Portonovo SD | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Silva | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Villalbés | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Alondras | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Estradense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Atlético Arteixo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Celtiga | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Coruña | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Pontevedra II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 15 | Celta de Vigo III | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Somozas | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 17 | Viveiro | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Arenteiro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.