· Analysis updated 14:12 UTC
Atlético Astorga vs Cultural Leonesa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Atlético Astorga and 1.75 for Cultural Leonesa, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Cultural Leonesa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cultural Leonesa win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético Astorga home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cultural Leonesa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cultural Leonesa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 24% / 24% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Atlético Astorga and 1.75 for Cultural Leonesa, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–06.3%
Recent form
Atlético Astorga
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Amorebieta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sestao River · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Marino de Luanco · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Basconia · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Portugalete · 0-1 (L)
Cultural Leonesa
- 2026-10-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs UD Logroñés · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arenas Getxo · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Unionistas de Salamanca · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CD Coria · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Extremadura 1924 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-21T17:30:00.000Z · Atlético Astorga 1-1 Cultural Leonesa (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-08-16T17:30:00.000Z · Atlético Astorga 1-0 Cultural Leonesa (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cultural Leonesa win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.