Estadio La Eragudina · Analysis updated 03:10 UTC
Atlético Astorga vs Lealtad Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Atlético Astorga and 0.92 for Lealtad, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Atlético Astorga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atlético Astorga win
55.0% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético Astorga home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lealtad away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlético Astorga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 24% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Atlético Astorga and 0.92 for Lealtad, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.4%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.4%
Recent form
Atlético Astorga
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Amorebieta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sestao River · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Marino de Luanco · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Basconia · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Portugalete · 0-1 (L)
Lealtad
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Colunga · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Caudal · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Langreo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Avilés Stadium · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Llanes · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-04T15:00:00.000Z · Atlético Astorga 3-4 Lealtad (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2025-11-02T11:00:00.000Z · Atlético Astorga 2-1 Lealtad (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sestao River | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Deportivo Alavés II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Bergantiños | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Eibar II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Compostela | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Amorebieta | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Ourense CF | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Portugalete | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Real Oviedo II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 10 | Gernika | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 11 | Basconia | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Coruxo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Atlético Astorga | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Arosa | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Marino de Luanco | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Llanera | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 17 | Racing Santander II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atlético Astorga win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.