· Analysis updated 21:09 UTC
Atletico Avila FC vs Aragua FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Atletico Avila FC and 0.93 for Aragua FC, a combined total of 1.55. That distribution gives Aragua FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
76.4% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico Avila FC home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Aragua FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aragua FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 24% / 35% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.63 goals for Atletico Avila FC and 0.93 for Aragua FC, a combined 1.55 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.2%
- 0–119.6%
- 1–013.3%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–29.1%
Recent form
Atletico Avila FC
- 2026-10-18T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Anzoátegui FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Monagas II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Petare FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz · 1-2 (L)
Aragua FC
- 2026-09-27T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Avila FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Petare FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Yaracuyanos FC · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Monagas II · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Lara | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 32 | 70 |
| 2 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 53 |
| 3 | Yaracuyanos FC | 31 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 52 |
| 4 | Urena SC | 32 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 48 |
| 5 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 44 |
| 6 | Zamora FC B | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 40 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Barinas | 31 | 10 | 5 | 16 | -9 | 35 |
| 8 | Puerto Cabello II | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | -10 | 34 |
| 9 | Real Frontera | 31 | 4 | 3 | 24 | -43 | 15 |
| 1 | Monagas II | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 45 |
| 2 | Petare FC | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 41 |
| 3 | Aragua FC | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 40 |
| 4 | Bolívar | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 40 |
| 5 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 36 |
| 6 | Mineros de Guyana | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -10 | 21 |
| 7 | Marítimo | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 | Atletico Avila FC | 25 | 1 | 10 | 14 | -23 | 13 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 76.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.