· Analysis updated 09:03 UTC
Atletico Avila FC vs Marítimo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.60 expected goals for Atletico Avila FC and 1.07 for Marítimo, a combined total of 1.68. That distribution gives Marítimo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Marítimo win
46.6% probability
Expected goals
0.60 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico Avila FC home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marítimo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 21% / 33% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.60 goals for Atletico Avila FC and 1.07 for Marítimo, a combined 1.68 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 24% and both teams to score at 30%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 20%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–120.1%
- 0–018.7%
- 1–112.1%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–210.8%
Recent form
Atletico Avila FC
- 2026-10-25T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Mineros de Guyana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Anzoátegui FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Monagas II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Petare FC · 0-0 (D)
Marítimo
- 2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Mineros de Guyana · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Aragua FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Petare FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Monagas II · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Lara | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 32 | 70 |
| 2 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 56 |
| 3 | Yaracuyanos FC | 32 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 19 | 55 |
| 4 | Urena SC | 32 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 48 |
| 5 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 44 |
| 6 | Zamora FC B | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 43 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Barinas | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | -10 | 35 |
| 8 | Puerto Cabello II | 33 | 9 | 7 | 17 | -14 | 34 |
| 9 | Real Frontera | 32 | 4 | 3 | 25 | -47 | 15 |
| 1 | Monagas II | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 45 |
| 2 | Aragua FC | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 43 |
| 3 | Petare FC | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 42 |
| 4 | Bolívar | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 41 |
| 5 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 36 |
| 6 | Mineros de Guyana | 26 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -10 | 22 |
| 7 | Marítimo | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 | Atletico Avila FC | 26 | 1 | 11 | 14 | -23 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Marítimo win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.