· Analysis updated 14:46 UTC
Atletico Balboa vs Fuerte San Francisco Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Atletico Balboa and 1.05 for Fuerte San Francisco, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Atletico Balboa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atletico Balboa win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico Balboa home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fuerte San Francisco away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Balboa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 27% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Atletico Balboa and 1.05 for Fuerte San Francisco, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.25 | 74.5% | 76.8% | 1.30 | +2.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.10 | 43.2% | 45.0% | 2.22 | +1.8 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.85 | 49.3% | 51.0% | 1.96 | +1.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.70 | 54.7% | 55.7% | 1.80 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 27.5% | 28.2% | 3.55 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.67 | 54.5% | 55.0% | 1.82 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 72.8% | 73.2% | 1.37 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.05 | 45.3% | 44.3% | 2.26 | -1.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 72.8% | 71.8% | 1.39 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 50.7% | 49.0% | 2.04 | -1.7 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.65 | 25.5% | 23.2% | 4.31 | -2.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.3% | 26.8% | 3.73 | -2.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Atletico Balboa
- 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Águila · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · H vs FAS · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Isidro Metapán · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-29T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Cacahuatique · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 1-1 (D)
Fuerte San Francisco
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Isidro Metapán · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Cacahuatique · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-01T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Firpo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T21:00:00.000Z · Atletico Balboa 1-0 Fuerte San Francisco (Primera Division)
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Firpo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 31 |
| 2 | FAS | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 31 |
| 3 | Isidro Metapán | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 30 |
| 4 | Águila | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | Inter | 17 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 26 |
| 6 | Alianza | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 23 |
| 7 | Platense | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 | Municipal Limeño | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | Inca Aruba | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -18 | 16 |
| 10 | Atletico Balboa | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -8 | 14 |
| 11 | Cacahuatique | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -11 | 13 |
| 12 | Fuerte San Francisco | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atletico Balboa win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.