Atlético Baleares vs Coruxo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Atlético Baleares and 0.88 for Coruxo, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives Atlético Baleares the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Atlético Baleares win

58.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.76 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Atlético Baleares home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Coruxo away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlético Baleares to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 23% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Atlético Baleares and 0.88 for Coruxo, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Atlético Baleares win58%

Draw23%

Coruxo win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–012.6%
2–011.1%
1–111.0%
2–19.7%
0–07.2%

Recent form

Atlético Baleares

2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcoyano · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Lorca Deportiva · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mallorca II · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Poblense · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Cieza · 1-1 (D)

Coruxo

2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Amorebieta · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ourense CF · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Compostela · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bergantiños · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gernika · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CD Coria	4	3	1	0	5	10
2	UD Logroñés	4	3	1	0	4	10
3	UD Ourense	4	3	1	0	4	10
4	Real Jaén	4	3	0	1	2	9
5	Águilas	4	2	2	0	2	8
6	Poblense	4	2	2	0	2	8
7	SD Logroñés	2	2	0	0	2	6
8	Real Oviedo II	4	2	0	2	-2	6
9	SS Reyes	4	1	2	1	1	5
10	Estepona	2	1	1	0	2	4
11	Atlético Baleares	4	1	1	2	1	4
12	Deportivo Alavés II	2	1	0	1	0	3
13	Xerez	2	0	2	0	0	2
14	Conquense	4	0	2	2	-3	2
15	Reddis	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Deportiva Minera	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Real Madrid III	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Alcoyano	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Coruxo	2	0	1	1	-3	1
20	Castellón II	2	0	0	2	-2	0
21	Utebo	2	0	0	2	-2	0
22	Numancia	2	0	0	2	-2	0
23	Tudelano	2	0	0	2	-2	0
24	Getafe II	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Atlético Baleares win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.