Estadio Balear · Analysis updated 16:21 UTC
Atlético Baleares vs Mallorca II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Atlético Baleares and 1.01 for Mallorca II, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives Atlético Baleares the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atlético Baleares win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético Baleares home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Mallorca II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–012.5%
- 2–19.0%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–18.8%
Recent form
Atlético Baleares
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Cieza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Ucam Murcia · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Intercity · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Yeclano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · A vs SS Reyes · 3-0 (W)
Mallorca II
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcoyano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs La Nucía · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Murcia II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportiva Minera · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia II · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T08:00:00.000Z · Atlético Baleares 3-1 Mallorca II (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-07-25T07:30:00.000Z · Atlético Baleares 2-1 Mallorca II (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-04-27T10:00:00.000Z · Atlético Baleares 3-0 Mallorca II (Segunda División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2024-12-14T18:30:00.000Z · Atlético Baleares 3-0 Mallorca II (Segunda División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2023-07-29T17:30:00.000Z · Atlético Baleares 1-1 Mallorca II (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · Atlético Baleares 3-0 Mallorca II (Friendlies Clubs)
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ucam Murcia | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | Castellón II | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Castellonense | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | La Nucía | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Cieza | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Deportiva Minera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Yeclano | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Alcoyano | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Orihuela | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Lorca Deportiva | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Intercity | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Elche II | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Atlético Baleares | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Poblense | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Mallorca II | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Peña Deportiva | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 17 | Valencia II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 18 | Real Murcia II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atlético Baleares win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.