· Analysis updated 13:07 UTC
Atlético CP vs 1º Dezembro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Atlético CP and 0.84 for 1º Dezembro, a combined total of 2.56. That distribution gives Atlético CP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atlético CP win
58.3% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético CP home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
1º Dezembro away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 2–011.5%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Atlético CP
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Lagoa · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Os Belenenses · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Oliveirense · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Olímpico do Montijo · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Covilha · 3-0 (W)
1º Dezembro
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lajense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amora · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Serpa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Real · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Imortal Albufeira · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · Atlético CP 0-1 1º Dezembro (Liga 3)
- 2026-02-22T15:00:00.000Z · Atlético CP 5-1 1º Dezembro (Liga 3)
- 2025-12-20T15:00:00.000Z · Atlético CP 1-0 1º Dezembro (Liga 3)
- 2025-10-12T15:00:00.000Z · Atlético CP 4-0 1º Dezembro (Liga 3)
- 2025-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · Atlético CP 1-2 1º Dezembro (Liga 3)
- 2025-03-30T12:00:00.000Z · Atlético CP 1-0 1º Dezembro (Liga 3)
- 2024-11-03T15:00:00.000Z · Atlético CP 1-2 1º Dezembro (Liga 3)
- 2024-08-04T10:00:00.000Z · Atlético CP 0-1 1º Dezembro (Liga 3)
- 2023-12-17T15:00:00.000Z · Atlético CP 2-1 1º Dezembro (Liga 3)
- 2023-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · Atlético CP 3-0 1º Dezembro (Liga 3)
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Leça | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | AD Marco 09 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Vianense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Mafra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Fafe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Louletano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Varzim | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | União Santarém | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | São João Ver | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 7 | Caldas | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Pacos Ferreira | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Trofense | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 9 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Guimaraes B | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atlético CP win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.