Atlético CP vs Caldas Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Atlético CP and 0.78 for Caldas, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Atlético CP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Atlético CP win

48.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.28 – 0.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Atlético CP home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Caldas away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Atlético CP win48%

Draw29%

Caldas win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

1–016.4%
0–012.9%
1–112.7%
2–010.5%
0–110.0%

Recent form

Atlético CP

2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Lagoa · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Os Belenenses · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Oliveirense · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Olímpico do Montijo · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Covilha · 3-0 (W)

Caldas

2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória de Sernache · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs União Santarém · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sintrense · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Louletano · 2-4 (L)
2026-08-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Lusitano Évora 1911 · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · Atlético CP 2-0 Caldas (Liga 3)
2026-03-14T15:00:00.000Z · Atlético CP 1-0 Caldas (Liga 3)
2025-12-07T16:00:00.000Z · Atlético CP 1-0 Caldas (Liga 3)
2025-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · Atlético CP 2-0 Caldas (Liga 3)
2025-01-19T15:00:00.000Z · Atlético CP 1-1 Caldas (Liga 3)
2024-10-06T14:00:00.000Z · Atlético CP 4-0 Caldas (Liga 3)
2023-11-05T15:00:00.000Z · Atlético CP 0-2 Caldas (Liga 3)
2023-08-08T19:30:00.000Z · Atlético CP 3-3 Caldas (Liga 3)

Liga 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paredes	6	4	1	1	4	13
1	CF Os Belenenses	6	5	1	0	11	16
2	Leça	6	3	1	2	1	10
2	Atlético CP	6	4	1	1	8	13
3	AD Marco 09	6	3	1	2	1	10
3	Oliveirense	6	2	3	1	0	9
4	Vianense	6	2	3	1	1	9
4	Mafra	6	2	2	2	4	8
5	Fafe	6	2	3	1	4	9
5	Louletano	6	2	1	3	-1	7
6	Varzim	6	3	0	3	2	9
6	União Santarém	6	2	1	3	-4	7
7	São João Ver	6	1	3	2	-2	6
7	Caldas	6	2	1	3	-3	7
8	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	2	3	-4	5
8	SC Covilha	6	1	3	2	-2	6
9	Trofense	6	1	2	3	-5	5
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	1	2	3	-4	5
10	Guimaraes B	6	1	2	3	-2	5
10	Vitória de Sernache	6	1	1	4	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Atlético CP win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.