· Analysis updated 06:43 UTC
Atletico de Marbella vs Arenas Armilla Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Atletico de Marbella and 1.66 for Arenas Armilla, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Arenas Armilla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Arenas Armilla win
54.7% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.66
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico de Marbella home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Arenas Armilla away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arenas Armilla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 21% / 24% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Atletico de Marbella and 1.66 for Arenas Armilla, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.4%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–210.3%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.5%
Recent form
Atletico de Marbella
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Huétor Vega · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Granada II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Málaga II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mancha Real · 1-0 (W)
Arenas Armilla
- 2026-10-18T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Alhaurino · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Malaga City · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Torre del Mar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Huétor Vega · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melilla | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Arenas Armilla | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Almería II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Motril | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Málaga II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Marbelli | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | UD San Pedro | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Churriana Vega | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Granada II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Atlético Porcuna | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 12 | Alhaurino | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Torre del Mar | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Huétor Vega | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Atletico de Marbella | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Mancha Real | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Cantoria | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Malaga City | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arenas Armilla win, at 54.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.