· Analysis updated 13:34 UTC
Atletico el Vigia FC vs Zamora FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Atletico el Vigia FC and 2.13 for Zamora FC, a combined total of 4.08. That distribution gives Zamora FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.5% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico el Vigia FC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zamora FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.5%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–16.9%
- 1–35.3%
Recent form
Atletico el Vigia FC
- 2026-10-18T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Club Atletico Barinas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Urena SC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-06T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Frontera · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Fundación Lara Deportiva · 4-2 (W)
Zamora FC
- 2026-10-21T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Anzoátegui FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico el Vigia FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Caracas FC · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Atletico Barinas · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-24T21:00:00.000Z · Atletico el Vigia FC 1-6 Zamora FC (Copa Venezuela)
- 2014-02-16T00:00:00.000Z · Atletico el Vigia FC 0-4 Zamora FC (Primera División)
- 2013-09-22T20:00:00.000Z · Atletico el Vigia FC 0-2 Zamora FC (Primera División)
- 2013-03-13T19:30:00.000Z · Atletico el Vigia FC 0-5 Zamora FC (Primera División)
- 2012-10-14T22:30:00.000Z · Atletico el Vigia FC 1-2 Zamora FC (Primera División)
- 2012-01-22T19:30:00.000Z · Atletico el Vigia FC 1-2 Zamora FC (Primera División)
- 2011-08-21T22:30:00.000Z · Atletico el Vigia FC 0-3 Zamora FC (Primera División)
Copa Venezuela table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anzoátegui FC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Atletico Avila FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 3 | Petare FC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 | Marítimo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Zamora FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 13 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Barinas | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 4 | Real Frontera | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -14 | 1 |
| 1 | Caracas FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Aragua FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Yaracuyanos FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -13 | 4 |
| 1 | Rayo Zuliano | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | Deportivo Lara | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Urena SC | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 4 | Trujillanos FC | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 1 | Monagas SC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 2 | Mineros de Guyana | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 |
| 3 | Bolívar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 4 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -17 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.