· Analysis updated 15:47 UTC
Atletico FC vs 9 de Octubre Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Atletico FC and 0.43 for 9 de Octubre, a combined total of 1.28. That distribution gives Atletico FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 39%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 14% for over 2.5 goals and 20% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 28%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
82.6% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 0.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
9 de Octubre away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 39% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Atletico FC and 0.43 for 9 de Octubre, a combined 1.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 14% and both teams to score at 20%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 28%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
61%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–027.9%
- 1–023.8%
- 0–111.9%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–010.1%
Recent form
Atletico FC
9 de Octubre
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Cuniburo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ind. Juniors · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico FC · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-03T20:00:00.000Z · Atletico FC 0-0 9 de Octubre (Liga Pro Serie B)
- 2026-04-04T16:30:00.000Z · Atletico FC 2-1 9 de Octubre (Liga Pro Serie B)
Liga Pro Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ind. Juniors | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 39 |
| 2 | Atletico FC | 22 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 38 |
| 3 | 9 de Octubre | 22 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 37 |
| 4 | Deportivo Cuenca Juniors | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | -3 | 34 |
| 5 | Cuniburo | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 31 |
| 6 | San Antonio | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 31 |
| 7 | Gualaceo SC | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 29 |
| 8 | Santo Domingo | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 28 |
| 9 | LDU Portoviejo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 27 |
| 10 | Cumbayá | 22 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 26 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -21 | 15 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | -17 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 82.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 20% and over 2.5 goals at 14%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.