Brazil · Serie B · Matchweek 3519:30

0 – 1

Saturday, 24 October 2026

Estadio Antonio Accioly · Referee Yuri Elino Ferreira Da Cruz · Analysis updated 08:07 UTC

Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense and 1.35 for Novorizontino, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Atletico Goianiense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Atletico Goianiense home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Novorizontino away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Goianiense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 26% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Atletico Goianiense and 1.35 for Novorizontino, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Atletico Goianiense win38%

Draw26%

Novorizontino win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–09.0%
0–18.8%
2–18.4%
1–28.2%

Recent form

Atletico Goianiense

2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · A vs CRB · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · H vs America Mineiro · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Goias · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z · A vs São Bernardo · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Criciuma · 4-0 (W)

Novorizontino

2026-10-12T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Ponte Preta · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-08T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Nautico Recife · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Goias · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-25T22:30:00.000Z · H vs São Bernardo · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-18T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Ceara · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Novorizontino	35	18	10	7	32	64
2	Vila Nova	35	18	8	9	14	62
3	Juventude	34	17	10	7	18	61
4	Fortaleza EC	35	16	13	6	12	61
5	Criciuma	35	17	8	10	6	59
6	CRB	35	16	7	12	4	55
7	Sport Recife	35	14	12	9	9	54
8	Atletico Goianiense	35	14	12	9	9	54
9	Operario-PR	35	14	9	12	-1	51
10	Goias	34	14	7	13	-6	49
11	São Bernardo	35	13	10	12	10	49
12	Botafogo SP	35	13	8	14	2	47
13	Cuiaba	34	11	14	9	5	47
14	Athletic Club	35	10	14	11	0	44
15	Nautico Recife	34	11	10	13	-3	43
16	Ceara	34	11	10	13	-5	43
17	Avai	35	10	7	18	-12	37
18	Londrina	35	8	8	19	-7	32
19	America Mineiro	34	5	5	24	-32	20
20	Ponte Preta	35	3	6	26	-55	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.