Ambrosio Maco Arroyo · Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
Atletico Grau vs ADT Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Atletico Grau and 0.90 for ADT, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Atletico Grau the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Atletico Grau win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico Grau home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ADT away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Grau to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 26% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Atletico Grau and 0.90 for ADT, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Atletico Grau
- 2026-09-19T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Atletico · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-01T20:00:00.000Z · H vs FBC Melgar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 2-2 (D)
ADT
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Cajamarca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-01T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Cienciano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Lima · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atletico Grau win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.