Ambrosio Maco Arroyo · Referee E. Ordonez · Analysis updated 14:52 UTC
Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Atletico Grau and 1.33 for Alianza Atletico, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Alianza Atletico the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.7% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico Grau home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alianza Atletico away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alianza Atletico to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 36% / 26% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Atletico Grau and 1.33 for Alianza Atletico, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Atletico Grau
- 2026-09-19T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Atletico · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-01T20:00:00.000Z · H vs FBC Melgar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 2-2 (D)
Alianza Atletico
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Boys · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Comerciantes Unidos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Grau · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T20:15:00.000Z · H vs UTC Cajamarca · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV Moquegua · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.