Estadio Carlos Miranda · Analysis updated 15:48 UTC
Atletico Independiente vs Lobos Upnfm Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Atletico Independiente and 0.90 for Lobos Upnfm, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Atletico Independiente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.1% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lobos Upnfm away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Independiente to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 30% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Atletico Independiente and 0.90 for Lobos Upnfm, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 33% and both teams to score at 40%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.8%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–013.2%
- 0–111.9%
- 2–08.4%
Recent form
Atletico Independiente
- 2026-08-29T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Platense FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Génesis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Espana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-10T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Choloma · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-04T01:00:00.000Z · A vs CD Marathon · 0-1 (L)
Lobos Upnfm
- 2026-10-18T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Independiente · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T01:30:00.000Z · H vs CD Marathon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Choloma · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Real Espana · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Espana | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | CD Olimpia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | CD Marathon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | CD Motagua | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Olancho | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Génesis | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Atletico Independiente | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | Estrella Roja | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Lobos Upnfm | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Platense FC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 8 |
| 11 | Atlético Choloma | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.