Metropolitano Stadium · Analysis updated 20:47 UTC
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.28 for Deportivo La Coruna, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Atletico Madrid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Atletico Madrid win
50.9% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico Madrid home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo La Coruna away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Madrid to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 23% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.28 for Deportivo La Coruna, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–26.6%
Recent form
Atletico Madrid
- 2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 1-2 (L)
Deportivo La Coruna
- 2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Penafiel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atletico Madrid win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.