Atletico Madrid vs Elche Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.30 for Elche, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Atletico Madrid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Atletico Madrid win

52.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.95 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Atletico Madrid home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Elche away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Atletico Madrid win53%

Draw22%

Elche win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–19.8%
2–19.6%
1–07.6%
2–07.4%
1–26.4%

Recent form

Atletico Madrid

2026-10-24T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Espanyol · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 2-1 (W)

Elche

2026-10-17T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Espanyol · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-04-22T17:00:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 2-3 Elche (La Liga)
2025-08-23T17:30:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 1-1 Elche (La Liga)
2025-01-15T20:30:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 4-0 Elche (Copa del Rey)
2023-05-14T14:15:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 0-1 Elche (La Liga)
2022-12-29T20:30:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 2-0 Elche (La Liga)
2022-05-11T19:30:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 2-0 Elche (La Liga)
2021-08-22T17:30:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 1-0 Elche (La Liga)
2021-05-01T14:15:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 1-0 Elche (La Liga)
2020-12-19T13:00:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 3-1 Elche (La Liga)
2015-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 3-0 Elche (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	9	9	0	0	30	27
2	Atletico Madrid	10	8	1	1	12	25
3	Real Madrid	9	7	0	2	14	21
4	Real Betis	9	6	1	2	2	19
5	Real Sociedad	9	5	1	3	0	16
6	Sevilla	9	4	2	3	-2	14
7	Alaves	10	3	3	4	3	12
8	Villarreal	10	3	3	4	1	12
9	Celta Vigo	9	2	5	2	3	11
10	Deportivo La Coruna	10	2	5	3	0	11
11	Osasuna	9	3	2	4	-8	11
12	Racing Santander	10	3	2	5	-11	11
13	Levante	9	2	4	3	-2	10
14	Elche	10	2	4	4	-3	10
15	Athletic Club	8	2	3	3	-1	9
16	Getafe	9	2	3	4	-6	9
17	Rayo Vallecano	9	2	3	4	-8	9
18	Espanyol	10	2	2	6	-2	8
19	Valencia	10	1	3	6	-10	6
20	Malaga	10	0	5	5	-12	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Atletico Madrid win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.