Atletico Madrid vs Malaga Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.22 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.63 for Malaga, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Atletico Madrid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws roughly 26% of the time.

Model pick

Atletico Madrid to Win

73.8% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

2.22 – 0.63

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Atletico Madrid win74%

Draw17%

Malaga win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

26%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

2–014.3%
1–012.8%
3–010.5%
2–19.0%
1–18.1%

Why the model likes this

Atletico Madrid home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Malaga away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Odds comparison

Indicative prices for the main markets.

Market	Selection	Odds	Bookmaker
Match Result	Home	1.27	10Bet
Match Result	Draw	5.00	10Bet
Match Result	Away	11.50	10Bet
Goals	Over 1.5	1.22	10Bet
Goals	Under 1.5	4.00	10Bet
Goals	Over 2.5	1.73	10Bet
Goals	Under 2.5	2.10	10Bet
Goals	Over 3.5	2.80	10Bet
Goals	Under 3.5	1.42	10Bet
Goals	Over 0.5	1.04	10Bet
Goals	Under 0.5	10.00	10Bet
Goals	Over 4.5	5.25	10Bet
Goals	Under 4.5	1.15	10Bet
BTTS	Yes	2.15	10Bet
BTTS	No	1.65	10Bet
Double Chance	Home/Draw	1.04	10Bet
Double Chance	Home/Away	1.14	10Bet
Double Chance	Draw/Away	3.50	10Bet

Recent form

Atletico Madrid

2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-09T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 4-1 (W)
2026-05-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 1-5 (L)

Malaga

2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Ceuta FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Arabi SC · 4-2 (W)
2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Leicester · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

2018-02-10T15:15:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 1-0 Malaga (La Liga)
2017-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 1-0 Malaga (La Liga)
2017-04-01T18:45:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 2-0 Malaga (La Liga)
2016-10-29T16:30:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 4-2 Malaga (La Liga)
2016-04-23T16:15:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 1-0 Malaga (La Liga)
2015-12-20T19:30:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 0-1 Malaga (La Liga)
2015-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 2-2 Malaga (La Liga)
2014-11-22T15:00:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 3-1 Malaga (La Liga)
2014-05-11T17:00:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 1-1 Malaga (La Liga)
2014-01-04T15:00:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 1-0 Malaga (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Alaves	1	1	0	3	3
2	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0
3	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
4	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0
5	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
6	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0
7	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0
8	Rayo Vallecano	0	0	0	0	0
9	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0
10	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0
11	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0
12	Athletic Club	0	0	0	0	0
13	Sevilla	0	0	0	0	0
14	Elche	0	0	0	0	0
15	Levante	0	0	0	0	0
16	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0
17	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0
18	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0
19	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0
20	Getafe	1	0	1	-3	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.