Metropolitano Stadium · Referee F. Maeso · Analysis updated 21:49 UTC
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.96 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.59 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Atletico Madrid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atletico Madrid win
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.96 – 0.59
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico Madrid home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Osasuna away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.3%
- 2–015.0%
- 3–09.8%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–18.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.83 (model 61.7% vs market 51.6%, edge +10.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.83 | 51.6% | 61.7% | 1.62 | +10.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.07 | 89.2% | 89.8% | 1.11 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.80 | 19.4% | 19.8% | 5.05 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.20 | 29.8% | 30.0% | 3.33 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.33 | 70.2% | 70.0% | 1.43 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 9.00 | 10.4% | 10.2% | 9.80 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 80.9% | 80.2% | 1.25 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.95 | 48.4% | 38.3% | 2.61 | -10.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Atletico Madrid
- 2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 1-2 (L)
Osasuna
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Vallecano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 4-0 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2026-05-12T19:30:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 2-1 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2025-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2025-05-15T17:00:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 0-2 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2025-01-12T15:15:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2024-05-19T17:00:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 1-4 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2023-09-28T19:30:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 2-0 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2023-05-21T14:15:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 3-0 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2023-01-29T15:15:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2022-02-19T15:15:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 3-0 Osasuna (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atletico Madrid win, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.