Metropolitano Stadium · Referee M. Ortiz · Analysis updated 16:35 UTC
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.65 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Atletico Madrid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico Madrid home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Madrid away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.2%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.6%
Recent form
Atletico Madrid
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 3-0 (W)
Real Madrid
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Roma · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Elche · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Vallecano · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-22T20:00:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 2-3 Real Madrid (La Liga)
- 2026-01-08T19:00:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 1-2 Real Madrid (Super Cup)
- 2025-09-27T14:15:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 5-2 Real Madrid (La Liga)
- 2025-03-12T20:00:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 1-0 Real Madrid (UEFA Champions League)
- 2025-03-04T20:00:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 1-2 Real Madrid (UEFA Champions League)
- 2025-02-08T20:00:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 1-1 Real Madrid (La Liga)
- 2024-09-29T19:00:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 1-1 Real Madrid (La Liga)
- 2024-02-04T20:00:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 1-1 Real Madrid (La Liga)
- 2024-01-18T20:30:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 4-2 Real Madrid (Copa del Rey)
- 2024-01-10T19:00:00.000Z · Atletico Madrid 3-5 Real Madrid (Super Cup)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.