Centro Deportivo Alcala de Henares · Referee B. Cuesta · Analysis updated 06:26 UTC
Atletico Madrid W vs Edf Logrono W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.99 expected goals for Atletico Madrid W and 1.04 for Edf Logrono W, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Atletico Madrid W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atletico Madrid W win
59.2% probability
Expected goals
1.99 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Edf Logrono W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Madrid W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 21% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.99 goals for Atletico Madrid W and 1.04 for Edf Logrono W, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–09.5%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Atletico Madrid W
Edf Logrono W
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Granad. Tenerife W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División Femenina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 21 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 3 | Athletic Club W | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid W | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Madrid CFF W | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 14 |
| 6 | Eibar W | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Granad. Tenerife W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Granada | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Espanyol W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Edf Logrono W | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Real Sociedad W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Sevilla W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | FC Levante Badalona W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Deportivo Alavés W | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Valencia W | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atletico Madrid W win, at 59.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.