Estadio das Seixas · Analysis updated 15:36 UTC
Atlético Malveira vs Comércio Indústria Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Atlético Malveira and 1.00 for Comércio Indústria, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Atlético Malveira the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atlético Malveira win
48.1% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético Malveira home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Comércio Indústria away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlético Malveira to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 26% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Atlético Malveira and 1.00 for Comércio Indústria, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.4%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–09.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Atlético Malveira
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mafra · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fátima · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Os Marialvas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-31T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Oliveira Hospital · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória de Sernache · 0-3 (L)
Comércio Indústria
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Alverca II · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs O Elvas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventude Évora · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Louletano · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-03-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sintrense · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imortal Albufeira | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Sintrense | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | FC Serpa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Juventude Évora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Amora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Real | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Lajense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Lagoa | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Alcochetense | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Vitoria Setubal | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 11 | 1º Dezembro | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 5 |
| 12 | Santa Clara B | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Portel | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Aljustrelense | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atlético Malveira win, at 48.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.