Campo de Fútbol de Mansilla de las Mulas · Analysis updated 15:46 UTC
Atlético Mansillés vs Almazán Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.64 expected goals for Atlético Mansillés and 1.08 for Almazán, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Atlético Mansillés the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atlético Mansillés win
50.3% probability
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético Mansillés home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Almazán away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlético Mansillés to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 25% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.64 goals for Atlético Mansillés and 1.08 for Almazán, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.8%
- 0–17.1%
Recent form
Atlético Mansillés
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Arandina · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Unionistas II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs La Virgen del Camino · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mirandés II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Bembibre · 2-0 (W)
Almazán
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Colegios Diocesanos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Villaralbo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Arandina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Unionistas II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs UD Santa Marta · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cristo Atlético | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Cultural Leonesa II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Burgos Promesas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Bembibre | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | UD Santa Marta | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Palencia CF | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Mansillés | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Almazán | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Guijuelo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Arandina | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Calasanz de Soria | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Villaralbo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Turégano | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Unionistas II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Colegios Diocesanos | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 17 | Salamanca II | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Mirandés II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atlético Mansillés win, at 50.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.